Rough weather patterns are rewriting the book on the beef business. From continent to continent, drought and wildfires aren’t only burning landscapes but also disrupting cattle herds and beef inventories. Cattle prices have moved to record levels over the past few years, but ranchers across the board are carrying fewer cattle than ever. It’s a trend that perplexes many. Shouldn’t higher prices create larger herds?
Rather, climate extremes now have a greater influence than economics on herds of cattle, the beef on our tables, and the difficult choices farmers face. With the problems come resilient breeds, such as the Nguni Cattle, which offer valuable survival lessons as ranchers deal with an uncertain climate.
Rollercoaster of Cattle Inventory Cycles
Traditionally, cattle populations move in cycles. Ranchers expand their herds when cattle prices are high, expecting more profit. When supply eventually outpaces demand, prices fall, and herds shrink. This cattle cycle usually repeats every 8 to 12 years, naturally balancing the market. However, today’s reality looks very different. The current cycle is stuck in the longest downtrend in living memory.
By 2025, the U.S. cattle herd is expected to reach its lowest point since the 1950s – a 73-year low. Why? Repeated droughts and wildfires have left pastures parched and water sources nearly dry. Even though cattle prices and live cattle prices are at record highs, many ranchers simply can’t rebuild their herds. This isn’t just happening in North America. Throughout Southern Africa, native breeds such as the Nguni Cattle are performing remarkably well in proving their resilience, yet they also face tremendous survival tests in increasingly drier environments.
Drought & Wildfires: Shattering the Beef Supply
When drought hits, green grass withers to brown, rivers dry up, and water tanks are emptied. In the United States, nearly 60% of cattle are raised in areas prone to drought, making the industry particularly vulnerable. Wildfires, on the other hand, can destroy tens of thousands of acres of grassland and critical infrastructure in a single night, adding to the shortage of feed and water. The harsh conditions prompt ranchers to sell their breeding stock, reducing next year’s calf supply and ultimately diminishing future beef production. The issue is worldwide. In Africa, pastoralists—many of whom raise Nguni Cattle; lost entire herds as both grazing land and watering holes disappear. Food security and rural incomes are threatened. The ultimate result is a decrease in beef supply, driving both cattle prices and live cattle prices to new highs. From rural ranches to supermarket shelves, everyone is tightening their belts.
Rancher Choices — Precautions and Hard Decisions
With cattle prices and live cattle prices so elevated, rebuilding herds may seem like a prudent decision. But most ranchers are holding back. Fear of another drought, combined with rising feed prices, has many ranchers hesitant to invest in new livestock or equipment. Instead, many are taking advantage of the current high prices by selling older animals and reducing their herds, rather than incurring a significant loss if another dry year occurs. This warning slows the normal herd rebuild and maintains high beef prices for extended intervals, shattering accustomed patterns of livestock cycles. Ranchers in Africa’s drylands are increasingly relying on hardy breeds, such as Nguni Cattle, which are valued for their resilience under stress. While these animals endure hardship better than most others, they still require adequate water and grass to flourish. Ranchers have grim decisions to make: sell off herds, thin numbers, or suffer catastrophic losses.
Lessons and the Road Ahead
The future of the beef industry is no longer tied to just market prices. Weather cycles, intelligent genetic decisions, and risk management all play a role. Recovery will require not only increased rainfall but also improved adaptation on the part of ranchers. Experts caution that even when pasture conditions improve, persistent bottlenecks mean cattle prices and live cattle prices will swing wildly in the years ahead. Breeds such as the hardy Nguni Cattle will increasingly become valuable worldwide, with ranchers everywhere looking for animals that can thrive and deliver under harsh conditions. The secret to success in the future is remaining adaptable—selecting the best breeds, planning for drought, and having good risk management strategies.
Conclusion
Drought and bushfires are turning the world of cattle on its head, demonstrating that today’s beef industry is forged as much by weather as by money. For producers and consumers alike, it’s essential to understand that cattle prices and live cattle prices will rise and fall not only with market fluctuations, but also with rainfall. Resilience—such as employing drought-resistant breeds like Nguni Cattle—will determine who prospers in an unpredictable world, and whose tale is over when the rains fail to arrive.